Case Studies

How a Category-Leading CPG Brand Achieves Up to 93% Monthly Forecast Accuracy

87.3%

average weighted accuracy for top-selling SKUs

93.3%

peak forecast accuracy (Aug. 2020)

What we provided

  • 83% weighted monthly forecast accuracy (avg.) at the SKU level
  • 79% average SKU-level forecast accuracy during peak Covid-19 months (April, May, June)
  • Machine learning models that self-adjust to new market realities
  • Hybrid platform that allows sales teams to manually input new sales, distribution changes, or other buyer communications
  • Cross-functionality; marketing can input expected gains due to promotional/media activity, while finance can make revisions to their AOP

The Client

A category leader in the food and beverage space, our client's SKUs are widely available at retailers nationwide and through various DTC partners.

Category

Food & Beverage

Location

United States of America

87.3%

average weighted accuracy for top-selling SKUs

93.3%

peak forecast accuracy (Aug. 2020)

What we provided

  • 83% weighted monthly forecast accuracy (avg.) at the SKU level
  • 79% average SKU-level forecast accuracy during peak Covid-19 months (April, May, June)
  • Machine learning models that self-adjust to new market realities
  • Hybrid platform that allows sales teams to manually input new sales, distribution changes, or other buyer communications
  • Cross-functionality; marketing can input expected gains due to promotional/media activity, while finance can make revisions to their AOP

The Challenge

Improve internal sales forecast accuracy by reducing WMAPE

A well-known CPG brand—a leader in a booming food and beverage category—sought the right technology partner after a recent period of skyrocketing growth, when sales jumped nearly 8X.

Almost overnight, the company quickly outgrew its manual-heavy forecasting process and needed to automate.

As a result, they recognized an immediate need to adopt a holistic demand planning platform that could provide highly accurate SKU-level forecasts at the total company, regional warehouse, and individual product levels.


The Solution

Unioncrate's AI-Powered Demand Planning Platform

Unioncrate's AI platform finds dynamic, multi-layered relationships in our client's data in order to deliver demand forecasts with unmatched accuracy, collaborative visibility, and actionable intelligence. Our machine learning algorithms constantly analyze and layer the brand's internal sales data with all external variables that could impact demand, including POS data.

Our consumption-driven models are designed with a deep understanding of the complexities and ever-evolving dynamics of the CPG industry, and our forecasts give weight to top-selling SKUs. As a result, we enable our clients to plan and execute agile supply chain strategies at the click of a button.


The Result

Note: Apart from forecast accuracy, the following data (sales volume, SKU IDs) has been randomized at the request of our client.

Forecast Accuracy Surpasses Expectations

This food and beverage brand brought on the Unioncrate team to solve a number of its demand planning obstacles and adopt the platform into its Integrated Business Planning (IBP) process. From February through August 2020—a seven-month stretch that included unprecedented shifts in consumer behavior amid the first COVID-19 peak—Unioncrate averaged 83% monthly forecast accuracy at the total company level (17% WMAPE) for our client's 10 top-selling SKUs.

SKU-level forecast accuracy averaged 79% over April, May, and June, and accuracy peaked at 93.3% in August.

Forecast Accuracy by Warehouse Region

Weighted Forecast Accuracy for Top-Selling SKUs

The following graph shows the weighted forecast accuracy of our client's top-selling SKUs. Unioncrate’s average forecast accuracy is 84% over the seven-month period. From February to August, Unioncrate’s weighted accuracy predictions for our client's top three SKUs is 87.3%.

62% of Top-Selling SKUs Achieve 87.3% Forecast Accuracy

About Unioncrate

Unioncrate is an AI-powered Integrated Business Planning (IBP) Platform that unites artificial and human intelligence so CPG brands can plan, execute, and pivot supply chain strategies at the click of a button.

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