Case Studies

How Spindrift Achieves Up to 93% Monthly Forecast Accuracy With Unioncrate

87.3%

average weighted accuracy for top-selling SKUs

93.3%

peak forecast accuracy (Aug. 2020)

What we provided

  • 83% weighted monthly forecast accuracy (avg.) at the SKU level
  • 79% average SKU-level forecast accuracy during peak Covid-19 months (April, May, June)
  • Machine learning models that self-adjust to new market realities
  • Hybrid platform that sales teams to manually input new sales, distribution changes, or other buyer communication. 
  • Cross-functionally, marketing can input expected gains due to promotional/media activity, while finance can make revision to their AOP.

The Client

Launched in 2010 by Bill Creelman, Spindrift Beverage Co. is a manufacturer of sparkling water beverages made with real squeezed fruit juice. Spindrift’s products are sold by retailers nationwide along with numerous e-Commerce platforms.

Category

Beverage > Sparkling Water

Location

Newton, Massachusetts

87.3%

average weighted accuracy for top-selling SKUs

93.3%

peak forecast accuracy (Aug. 2020)

What we provided

  • 83% weighted monthly forecast accuracy (avg.) at the SKU level
  • 79% average SKU-level forecast accuracy during peak Covid-19 months (April, May, June)
  • Machine learning models that self-adjust to new market realities
  • Hybrid platform that sales teams to manually input new sales, distribution changes, or other buyer communication. 
  • Cross-functionally, marketing can input expected gains due to promotional/media activity, while finance can make revision to their AOP.

The Challenge

Improve Spindrift’s internal sales forecast accuracy by reducing WMAPE

Spindrift’s growth is something to behold. From 2016 to 2018 alone, sales jumped 800%. The following year, the Greater Boston-based brand also saw a 127.5% increase in dollar sales for 2019, according to BevNet, and raised more capital in March of this year. 

Since January 2019, Unioncrate has been an integral part of Spindrift’s demand planning process. We’re tasked with providing highly accurate SKU-level demand forecasts at the total company, regional warehouse, and individual product levels.

The Solution

Unioncrate’s AI provides Spindrift with highly accurate forecasts

In order to find dynamic, multi-layered relationships in Spindrift’s business, Unioncrate’s algorithms are constantly analyzing and layering Spindrift’s internal sales data with all external variables that impact demand, including POS data. Our consumption-driven models are designed with a deep understanding of the complexities and ever-evolving dynamics of the CPG industry, and our forecasts give weight to top-selling SKUs.

The Result

Apart from forecast accuracy data, the following information (sales volume and SKU IDs) has been randomized at the request of our client.

Forecast Accuracy: Total Company 

From February through August 2020—a seven-month stretch that included unprecedented shifts in consumer behavior amid the first Covid-19 peak—Unioncrate averaged 83% monthly forecast accuracy at the total company level (17% WMAPE) for 10 of Spindrift’s top-selling SKUs.

SKU-level forecast accuracy averaged 79% over April, May, and June, and accuracy peaked at 93.3% in August.

Forecast Accuracy: Breakdown by Warehouse Region

Weighted Forecast Accuracy: Top-Selling SKUs

The following graph shows the weighted forecast accuracy of Spindrift’s top-selling SKUs. Unioncrate’s average forecast accuracy is 84% over the seven-month period.

From February to August, Unioncrate’s weighted accuracy predictions for Spindrift’s top three SKUs is 87.3%.

About Unioncrate

Unioncrate is an AI-powered Integrated Business Planning (IBP) Platform that unites artificial and human intelligence so CPG brands can plan, execute, and pivot supply chain strategies at the click of a button.

Testimonial Image

Stay in the loop

Get the latest CPG insights delivered straight to your inbox.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Unioncrate respects your privacy and will not share your personal data. View our Privacy Policy.