The Challenge
Improve Spindrift’s internal sales forecast accuracy by reducing WMAPE
Spindrift’s growth is something to behold. From 2016 to 2018 alone, sales jumped 800%. The following year, the Greater Boston-based brand also saw a 127.5% increase in dollar sales for 2019, according to BevNet, and raised more capital in March of this year.
Since January 2019, Unioncrate has been an integral part of Spindrift’s demand planning process. We’re tasked with providing highly accurate SKU-level demand forecasts at the total company, regional warehouse, and individual product levels.
The Solution
Unioncrate’s AI provides Spindrift with highly accurate forecasts
In order to find dynamic, multi-layered relationships in Spindrift’s business, Unioncrate’s algorithms are constantly analyzing and layering Spindrift’s internal sales data with all external variables that impact demand, including POS data. Our consumption-driven models are designed with a deep understanding of the complexities and ever-evolving dynamics of the CPG industry, and our forecasts give weight to top-selling SKUs.
The Result
Apart from forecast accuracy data, the following information (sales volume and SKU IDs) has been randomized at the request of our client.
Forecast Accuracy: Total Company
From February through August 2020—a seven-month stretch that included unprecedented shifts in consumer behavior amid the first Covid-19 peak—Unioncrate averaged 83% monthly forecast accuracy at the total company level (17% WMAPE) for 10 of Spindrift’s top-selling SKUs.
SKU-level forecast accuracy averaged 79% over April, May, and June, and accuracy peaked at 93.3% in August.
Forecast Accuracy: Breakdown by Warehouse Region
Weighted Forecast Accuracy: Top-Selling SKUs
The following graph shows the weighted forecast accuracy of Spindrift’s top-selling SKUs. Unioncrate’s average forecast accuracy is 84% over the seven-month period.
From February to August, Unioncrate’s weighted accuracy predictions for Spindrift’s top three SKUs is 87.3%.
About Unioncrate
Unioncrate is an AI-powered Integrated Business Planning (IBP) Platform that unites artificial and human intelligence so CPG brands can plan, execute, and pivot supply chain strategies at the click of a button.
